A war waged with atomic bombs or the effects of global warming are the two potential events that we face in the immediate. We could avoid each of those catastrophic happenings if we chose to do so. Our history indicates that we are incapable of reining ourselves in, so to speak, and that our penchant for more and more wealth will drive us to defeat ourselves.
Interestingly, if we are able to avoid either/both of those horrors, our success will lead us to another 'advancement' that is equally dangerous. The next 'trap' in human development is technical in nature. We will alter ourselves physically by engineering 'improvements' into our bodies and/or creating alternative structures with human characteristics such as artificial intelligence.
Ultimately, the bioengineered creature will, with the logic we designed into it, decide it no longer needs the weak, stupid and puny humans that created it.
There are various other dangers facing the human species as well. In many situations, humans will have influence on the outcomes and in some situations humans will simply be over-powered by greater power.
It is virtually impossible that we are living on the only planet in existence that hosts 'life'. It is possible to imagine that at some future time, we will be in contact with life from somewhere else... it might not be a positive experience for us.
Or, there could be an untreatable mutant bacteria or virus ready to cause a global pandemic. It could be something evolving naturally, or it could be something we create, engineered through advancement in DNA manipulation technology.
Or, humans could possibly continue with more of the same success that we have experienced in which case, over-population is/will become a problem.
If our leadership structure had developed differently, we could have some level of confidence that we humans would take a rational approach to the dangers we face and provide solutions for ourselves as we move forward. But, unfortunately, we are who we are. Greed seems to be the dominating urge. We view that greed as a negative and deny that it has the power it has, but all of our history and all of our current actions prove that, unless someone is making money, nothing happens. And if someone is making money, no matter how bad the consecqueces, making money comes first... and that's the truth !!!
why humans won’t dominate Earth in 300 years
from Vox by Ezra Klein “It's not because I overestimate the AI. It's because most people tend to overestimate human beings.”
Yuval Noah Harari’s first book, Sapiens, was an international sensation. The Israeli historian’s mind-bending tour through the triumph of Homo sapiens is a favorite of, among others, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Barack Obama. His new book, Homo Deus: a Brief History of Tomorrow, is about what comes next for humanity — and the threat our own intelligence and creative capacity poses to our future.
I spoke with Harari recently for my podcast, The Ezra Klein Show. To hear our whole conversation, subscribe on iTunes (or wherever you get your podcasts) or stream it off SoundCloud. In this excerpt, which has been edited for length and clarity, Harari and I discuss the rise of artificial intelligence, whether digital consciousness is a necessary byproduct of digital intelligence, and what it will all mean for human beings. Yuval Harari, author of Sapiens, on how meditation made him a better historian As you’ll see, I’m a bit less convinced than Harari is that the computers are coming for our jobs, and that human beings are on the edge of economic uselessness. But I could very well be wrong, and he makes a good case that I am. We also talk about virtual reality, and the possibility that we will manage the problem of economic irrelevance by retreating into artificial wonderlands that give us the meaning and the narrative that our daily lives deny us. Harari argues we’ve been applying that salve for a millennium now — we just called it religion. Ezra KleinDo you think that in 200 or 300 years, human beings will be the dominant actor on Earth? Yuval Harari Absolutely not. If you asked me in 50 years, it would be a difficult question, but 300 years, it's a very easy question. In 300 years, Homo sapiens will not be the dominate life form on Earth, if we exist at all. Given the current pace of technological development, it is possible we destroy ourselves in some ecological or nuclear calamity. The more likely possibility is that we will use bioengineering and machine learning and artificial intelligence either to upgrade ourselves into a totally different kind of being or to create a totally different kind of being that will take over. In any case, in 200 or 300 years, the beings that will dominate the Earth will be far more different from us than we are different from Neanderthals or from chimpanzees. |
Monday, April 3, 2017
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